← Regionals - Mortal Ambition - Wilczek
Water Ravishing MillTier 1
at Regionals - Mortal Ambition - Wilczek
decks
3
(10.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
19
12-5-2
overall winrate
68.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
55.5%
avg ELO +2.1 per match
expected value
59.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
54.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1394
· median 1445
· range 1244–1493
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
983
Q1 1182
Q3 1354
1535
67% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 20.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.0% | +8.7 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 10.3% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 53.5% | +2.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.9% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 43.8% | -4.7 |
| Fire Exia | 6.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 6.9% | 5 | 3-1-1 | 70.0% | 61.1% | 57.6% | +4.3 |
| Wind Razorgale | 6.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.7% | +13.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 3.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.4% | -15.4 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.4% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 44.1% | -5.7 |
| Water Umbra Diana | 3.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.5% | +7.1 |
| Wind Allies | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 3.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.3% | +13.3 |
